What once seemed like science fiction yesterday is now a reality today—and not always a benefit for global stability. Warfare, after all, is a cynical affair; what form it will take tomorrow depends on the advances in science and technology.
The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, especially recent events such as Ukrainian strikes on Russian military airfields deep in the rear, reveals clear trends in the evolution of modern combat technology. Essentially, these developments boil down to two key conclusions: military targets are becoming increasingly vulnerable to relatively inexpensive unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and these UAVs, in turn, face threats from modern air defense systems and electronic warfare tools. These insights mark the beginning of a new chapter in the evolution of warfare—an era dominated by “micro-armies” and automated swarms vying for strategic dominance behind enemy lines and supremacy on the battlefield.
Technological Advancements: Miniaturization and Autonomy
The first major trend is the miniaturization of UAVs. In the near future, thanks to breakthroughs in nanotechnology and advanced materials, drones will be approximately the size of insects. This scale will dramatically enhance their survivability, reducing the risk of destruction from air defenses and small arms fire, while simultaneously expanding their operational reach into previously inaccessible zones—inside buildings, underground, underwater. These miniature drones could stealthily operate in urban environments, infiltrate underground communication systems, or function in deep-sea conditions—unlocking new possibilities for intelligence gathering and targeted strikes.
The second critical development is increasing their autonomy through artificial intelligence. Next-generation AI systems will enable swarms of small drones to operate independently without constant connection to a human operator, utilizing local algorithms and electromagnetic signals emitted by the target itself. This approach reduces reliance on secure communication channels and complicates attempts to disable or neutralize the swarms via electronic warfare.
It’s important to keep in mind that insects—these biotechnologies are inspired by them—do not possess “intelligence” in a human sense. They rely on instinct, which is a much simpler mechanism than logical or situational thinking. Swarms of locusts, for instance, simply pursue their goal, and they will succeed even if only 25% of the swarm reaches the target.
Small but Lethal: New Methods of Impact
The third revolutionary idea is overcoming the payload limitations of such miniature devices. Traditional munitions require significant volume and weight, which is impractical for tiny drones. Instead, a promising concept involves micro-UAVs capable of carrying minuscule amounts of hazardous liquids—such as nitrogenous acid—allowing the swarm to amass and release destructive quantities over the target. Once coordinated at a specific point, hundreds or thousands of these miniature robots could deliver droplets that cause fires, structural damage, or destruction at critical military infrastructure—such as missile silos, command centers, or power stations.
The fourth technological breakthrough is the integration of computational power within the swarm itself. Mini-UAVs will be able to execute coordinated actions and identify electromagnetic sources indicative of strategic targets, all without persistent external communication. Thanks to synchronized electronics and AI, they will be able to precisely “rainedown” their payloads at designated locations, even amid electronic countermeasures.
The Future Warfare Scenario: Swarm “Insects”
The fifth point describes a large-scale attack scenario using tens of thousands of micro-UAVs. For instance, a suitcase hidden near a military base in the bushes, or a plywood drone carrier in the air, could release vast numbers of drones, each assigned a specific task. Upon reaching their targets, these swarms could incapacitate the power grid feeding an air or missile base, cause fires, or destroy critical facilities—delivering devastating damage within moments. This approach makes offensive campaigns highly scalable and practically endless in reproduction.
Integration Across Environments
The next stage in development involves creating UAVs capable of operating seamlessly across all environments—underground tunnels, deep-sea waters, inside buildings, or submerged—targeting cables, communication nodes, and supply chains. Such innovations will fundamentally transform reconnaissance, sabotage, and combat operations.
